An 'interesting mix': What the new Senate lineup means for the Philippines
When the Senate convenes for the 20th Congress in July, political analysts foresee a shift in power dynamics driven by the results of the May 12 elections.
“It’s not the usual pro-Duterte senators vs. pro-admin senators,” Dennis Coronacion, chair of the University of Santo Tomas’ Political Science Department, told PhilSTAR L!fe.
Coronacion said the composition of the new Senate is proving to be an “interesting mix” with the recent wins of Bong Go, Bam Aquino, Bato Dela Rosa, Erwin Tulfo, Kiko Pangilinan, Rodante Marcoleta, Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, Pia Cayetano, Camille Villar, Lito Lapid, and Imee Marcos.
Aries Arugay, chair of the University of the Philippines Diliman’s Political Science Department, also told L!fe he expects a lot of changes in the composition of the Senate from the get-go.
“Some of them might think it's better to remain with the majority so that they can keep their committee chairmanships,” Arugay said, “but if they're going to really act as an opposition to the Marcos administration, some of them might affiliate themselves more with the minority.”
Nothing could test this new power dynamic more than the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte where the senators will serve as judges. Duterte is facing a series of grave allegations, including conspiracy to assassinate Marcos, large-scale corruption, abuse of public funds, and involvement in extrajudicial killings.
The opposition could make discussions more challenging, according to Coronacion, though they could be interesting with more pro-Duterte allies in the senatorial mix like Go, Marcoleta, Dela Rosa, Imee, and Villar.
“Will the vice president get the eight or nine votes that she needs in order to get acquitted? ‘Yan ang malaking tanong doon,” Coronacion said.
However, Arugay noted that even if pro-Duterte supporters already have prior positions, “there might be public pressure for them to appreciate the evidence that will be presented—especially if the evidence is very glaring, especially if the prosecution was able to successfully make a case, and if the defense panel is unable to mount a credible defense.”
Marcos-Duterte rift
Coronacion pointed out that the ongoing rift between Marcos and Duterte, which was brought about by a series of public attacks, may compromise deliberations among politicians.
“The perception is that proposed measures are going to benefit the administration. That's going to serve as a background in any Senate deliberations. Lalo na ngayon, tatlong taon na lang, 2028 elections na, so they're going to be suspicious of each other's move,” he said.
While Arugay noted how the varying alliances of the incoming officials may entail more pushback on some of the policies of the administration, possibly resulting in more hearings and Senate investigatory initiatives, he’s optimistic that the newly elected leaders are going to cooperate in terms of the non-controversial bills.
Analysts predict, for instance, that the national budget and government spending would be highly scrutinized and deliberated on.
Marcos signed the 2025 national budget worth P6.326 trillion in December. It was lower than the P6.352 trillion initially submitted to Congress as the chief executive directly vetoed over P194 billion worth of line items that are “inconsistent with the administration's priority programs.”
“‘Yung economic agenda ni Marcos Jr., a lot of these are still unfulfilled. The agenda needs to be implemented. Some of these might be overlapping naman with the interest of the senators, even if they might align themselves more with the Duterte camp,” Arugay explained.
The Philippines' economic situation remains fragile as it grapples with decade-old issues such as inflation and mounting public debt, posing serious challenges for policymakers.
Economist and educator JC Punongbayan noted how the Philippine economy is still “ailing from many problems” to this day.
“For example, the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic recession, the increasing debt, so it's incumbent upon the new batch of senators to push for well-meaning and meaningful reforms for the future,” he said.
The climb is steep, but Punongbayan is confident that the government will be able to pursue much-needed reforms to fix the economy.
“I'm quite hopeful that with many opposition figures coming in, at least we'll have better debates, better legislative deliberations in the coming months and years,” he said.
According to him, some bills that need to be in the spotlight include military and uniformed personnel pension reforms, legislation that will improve the ease of doing business in the country, and tax reforms that can move the country towards fiscal consolidation and better debt management.
For him, the incoming leaders should focus on education as it is “one of the greatest hurdles or constraints in the Philippine economy” and exert greater scrutiny on the budget.
Punongbayan highlighted how the education sector would benefit from Aquino being in the lineup, as he had leveraged his past policies on education. Pangilinan’s focus on agriculture and food is also essential as it’s “an important sector that needs greater focus and more reforms.”
More than half of the senators in the coming set have strong economic goals: Aquino and Go focus on providing employment and livelihood; Marcos eyes equal minimum wage across all regions; Tulfo aims to amend the Rice Tariffication Law and institutionalize sustainable livelihood programs; Pangilinan wants to lower the prices of products, Sotto will scrutinize the national government budget; and Villar is set on strengthening small and medium-sized enterprises.
Punongbayan acknowledged that the Congress “exerts a lot of influence in steering many of these policy reforms,” but noted that “many of these policies need to be scrutinized as well.”
“Hopefully, the new batch of senators will exert greater independence on these economic and social issues and the reforms that are needed,” he continued.
'Moving in the right direction'
While the senatorial lineup may “not [be] perfect,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort noted that it's at least “moving in the right direction” as fewer names are involved in political dynasties or elected based on popularity.
“As it turned out, it's relatively peaceful and orderly. That's a good sign,” he said, highlighting how the market has reacted positively to the May 12 polls.
“The stock market is at the highest in more than four months. May kumpiyansa ‘yung investors. They see better things ahead,” he explained, adding that this could open the door for both local and foreign investors to establish businesses in the Philippines, generate employment opportunities, and potentially help address the country's ongoing budget deficit.
In the end, the chosen officials are here to lead for the next few years, whether the Filipino masses accept it or not. Whether the direction these officials will take is for better or for worse remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt about the impact they will have on the lives of everyday Filipinos.
“Politics is always like that. No one really gets what they want in politics, especially all the time. At the end, the senators are accountable to the people, so it's important for the voters to be informed of how they are performing and to push them to be more accountable for their decisions,” Arugay urged.
As for all of us, Arugay said that it's our responsibility to make sure that we are consuming true and credible information. “There's a lot of disinformation out there,” he noted. “And you must not disengage—the behavior should not be, ‘Oh, I did not vote for these senators, I just don't care.’ In fact, you should care more.”
