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[OPINION] What we learned from the 2025 midterm elections

Published May 13, 2025 4:11 pm

Surprise befell millions of Filipinos last night as early results of the 2025 midterm elections began rolling in. Voter turnout is reportedly higher than anticipated despite brutal heat and torrential rain. Most senatorial surveys missed the mark by miles.

While this election still involved many of the old players—and old playing tactics—this is the first where millennials and Gen Z, aged 18-44, make up 60.5% of registered voters. This is a significant increase from 2022, when they only comprised 56%.

As partial results are completed and this year’s plot twists are solidified, here are some lessons we learned from the May 12 polls.

Cheaping out on voting equipment is cheating our democracy

Early on May 12, reports circulated online that some votes, particularly for party-list, were voided as overvotes despite voters only shading the maximum allowed number. Some theorized it was because of ink bleed, as the party-list section was on the back of the ballot. This year’s ballots were thinner at 90-100 grams per square meter (GSM); in 2022, it was 162 GSM. 

Among those who experienced this was Makabayan senatorial bet and nurse Alyn Andamo, who then urged for a manual count; actor Khalil Ramos shared his “mistake” on Instagram Stories and warned his followers to be “extra careful when shading.”

Organizations Vote Report PH and Kontra Daya also found that errors with automated counting machines made up half of election violation reports. Such errors included paper jams and rejected ballots.

While we’ve come to expect technical errors, subpar equipment is a breach of our right to vote. The failure of machinery essentially silences our voice.

Local politics play a bigger role, especially in toppling dynasties

It’s been a common habit of mine to leave my local candidates blank; I vote in Cavite, where the Remullas and Revillas often go unopposed. But in other cities, things are starting to turn.

In Las Piñas City, overrun by orange and establishments named after and/or owned by the Villars, Sen. Cynthia Villar was defeated by independent candidate Mark Anthony Santos for district representative, garnering over 20,000 more votes in the initial tally. The Villars have held various positions in the city since the 1960s. In Cebu, reelectionist incumbent Governor Gwendolyn Garcia falls second to Duterte-backed newbie Pam Baricuatro. In Calamba, Laguna, reelected Mayor Ross Rizal continued to block the Chipeco family from regaining office.

While this doesn’t mean they’re automatically progressive, these results indicate that voters are willing to bet on newer faces and overturn political dynasties; especially at the local level, where “family businesses” usually start to take hold.

Inside a polling precinct for the May 2025 elections

Local endorsements also moved the needle for senatorial upsets Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan, who lagged behind on pre-election surveys. Near election day, the two candidates were endorsed by high-ranking local officials in vote-rich regions in Central and South Luzon, even in provinces that did not favor former Vice President Leni Robredo in 2022. Pangilinan was also the first senatoriable endorsed by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s political party in Mindanao. 

Beyond left and right, Filipinos want to vote for policies they can feel

Reelectionist Senator Bong Go topped the Magic 12, no doubt thanks to the Malasakit Center Act. And while many factors could have contributed to Aquino’s placement as second, the constant recall of free tuition during the campaign might have greatly helped his case.

It was not unusual to hear voters have both Go and Aquino on their ballots despite the two’s contrasting allies. According to research firm WR Numero, 31.4% of voters express that they are neither allied with Marcos, Duterte, or the opposition. 

Perhaps this shows that voters will elect the candidates they believe can make a change. Voter surveys, after all, revealed that their main concerns are affording basic necessities, including healthcare and education. 

Since being established in 2019, Malasakit Centers have served as a one-stop shop for government medical assistance, with 163 centers nationwide. Tertiary education has been free in state universities and colleges since it was institutionalized by the Universal Access to Quality Tertiary Education Act in 2018, principally sponsored by Aquino. 

The challenge now for future candidates is one of marketing: Go’s Malasakit Centers, in particular, have simply consolidated government agencies that have always provided financial aid, even before Go was in the Senate. The services would exist even without the center, and yet Go was able to take credit—and the senatorial top spot.

Surveys don’t always get it right

One of the biggest surprises on election night was how far off Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations surveys were. Among the predicted Magic 12, Sen. Bong Revilla, broadcaster Ben Tulfo, Makati City Mayor Abby Binay, TV host Willie Revillame, and former Sen. Manny Pacquiao failed to make the cut in the partial and unofficial results. Meanwhile, Aquino, Pangilinan, and SAGIP Representative Rodante Marcoleta made it to the Magic 12 despite low survey rankings.

This can be attributed to last-minute endorsements, but some have theorized that it is due to outdated methodologies. The surveys’ usual sampling may not have changed to reflect the shift of voters to being primarily millennials and Gen Z.

A warrant of arrest is not enough grounds for disqualification, apparently

Rodrigo Duterte is poised to win the mayoralty race in Davao City despite being detained at the International Criminal Court. The former president, arrested earlier this year for crimes against humanity, garnered over 60% of the votes in his bailiwick. 

Duterte’s ally Apollo Quiboloy, thankfully, only placed 31st in the senatorial race. Quiboloy is currently detained for various charges, including sex and human trafficking and money laundering. He is also on the FBI’s wanted list.

Still, Quiboloy should never have been able to run in the first place. Under the law, candidates with criminal charges, like Duterte and Quiboloy, can run for office, even while in detention as they await conviction. 

This is ironic, considering some candidates were disqualified by the Comelec, like Pasig City district representative candidate Christian "Ian" Sia over his lewd remarks about single moms during a political assembly. 

This was a hallmark decision—the first time Comelec disqualified a candidate for discrimination against women during the campaign period—and definitely a step in the right direction. But where was this same energy for Quiboloy? 

While it’s tempting to vote according to winnability, it’s worth it to vote according to our values

Many first-time senatorial candidates boasted surprising numbers despite having very little campaign capacity. Independent candidate Heidi Mendoza, former commissioner of the Commission on Audit, was 21st in the partial results, beating the likes of the more popular Revillame and Sen. Francis Tolentino. Some of Makabayan’s senate bets, comprised of representatives from different sectors like farmers, fisherfolk, teachers, and nurses, garnered around three million votes—promising numbers that make 2028 look a little brighter. 

I’m aware it sounds naive and idealistic to think that these candidates, who resemble the common Filipino more closely than the elite or an artista, will win, especially on their first try. However, the results indicate that the nation’s future is never set in stone, and that old cycles can always be broken. I understand the merit of and strategy behind voting for lesser evils, but why would I when candidates that put the Filipino people at the center of their values and platforms are also running for office? 

I continue to dream of a government rid of lesser evils (or evils in general), and this election shows some glimmers that it’s possible. Our sectors are not powerless; they don’t need out-of-touch politicians to speak for them. It is now a matter of electing them. 

After all, Akbayan, led by first nominee Atty. Chel Diokno, topped the party-list poll with a 300,000 lead over the second-placer, Duterte Youth. There is a lot to be done for the next election in 2028 if we want to see more transformative change, but if there’s one main thing we can take away from the midterms, there really is power in numbers. Now let’s put our numbers to work.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions of PhilSTAR L!fe, its parent company and affiliates, or its staff.