How did Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan top the 2025 Senate race?
When the election returns of the 2025 midterm polls started transmitting on the evening of May 12, Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan were among the leading candidates despite their low rankings in pre-election surveys from major polling firms.
According to the Commission on Elections' partial and unofficial tally, which has 97.29% of election returns as of May 13, 5:00 p.m., Aquino is in the second spot with over 20.6 million votes. Pangilinan, meanwhile, is in the fifth spot with over 15 million votes.
Yet as far as surveys from the likes of Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia are concerned, Aquino and Pangilinan aren't in the same league as the survey regulars like incumbent candidates Bong Go, Bato Dela Rosa, Bong Revilla, Pia Cayetano, and Imee Marcos; returnees Ping Lacson and Tito Sotto; and media personalities Ben and Erwin Tulfo, as well as Willie Revillame.
In the last SWS pre-election survey before election day, Aquino and Pangilinan weren't in the Magic 12. It was only in Pulse Asia's April survey, published May 5, that Aquino entered the Magic 12, while Pangilinan ranked 17th to 19th.
How did Aquino and Pangilinan upset surveys and pull off surprising leads?
Geography, vote-rich areas
Edson Guido, the chief elections analyst of TV5, attributed Aquino's win to vote-rich areas such as the Lingayen-Lucena corridor.
Historically, the Lingayen-Lucena corridor—encompassing Aurora, Bataan, Batangas, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Metro Manila, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Pangasinan, Quezon, Rizal, Tarlac, and Zambales—has been the Philippines' most vote-rich region. This area, accounting for 40% of the nation's voters, usually determines the winners in elections.
Aquino earned 10.8 million votes and topped the Lingayen-Lucena corridor as of 7:30 p.m., according to the Comelec Media Server. Meanwhile, Go, the leader of the Senate race, garnered 8.9 million votes in these areas.
According to Cleve Arguelles of public opinion research firm WR Numero, the Lingayen-Lucena corridor has the country's 68.4 million voting population. It's a "highly urban population most penetrated by the tools for 'air war': radio, TV, and internet."
"Ganoon kaimportante ang Lingayen-Lucena corridor," Guido said.
In vote-rich areas in the National Capital Region like Manila and Quezon City, Aquino received a total of 1.1 million votes, as of 7:30 p.m.
In Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon, or Region IV-A), which accounts for the highest number of registered voters in the country at 9.7 million, Aquino got 3.7 million votes, as of 7:30 p.m.
In Central Luzon or Region III, which has over 7.7 million voters, Aquino also came out on top.
Conversely, in Mindanao, the bailiwick of candidates allied with the Dutertes, Aquino only ended up in the 14th spot with 2.2 million votes.
Nevertheless, Guido said Aquino still ended up at "a respectable place."
"Napakaraming boto pa rin niyan," he said. "Region III, Region IV-A, NCR. A clean sweep (for Aquino). Tatlo sa pinakamaraming rehistradong botante," Guido also said. "Hindi natin ito nakita sa surveys na makakarating siya sa No. 2 spot, pero kaya niya nakuha (ang No. 2 spot)."
Youth vote
There are also perceptions about the youth vote leading to Aquino and Pangilinan's surprise win as millennials and Gen Z cover more than half of the 68 million registered voters, as of January 2025.
But political science professor Julio Teehankee, in a guesting over ANC's "Halalan 2025" special coverage, noted that perceptions about the youth vote must still be tested, as there are no exit polls in this year's elections.
"We'll have to do some research," Teehankee said, "and see whether kung ang talagang factor dito is the so-called millennials and Gen Z."
Jean Franco of the University of the Philippines Department of Political Science echoed this and stressed that there's not enough data yet regarding how people actually voted in the 2025 polls. "The data on elections so far only gives us the turnout and the results," she said.
If the youth indeed contributed to Aquino and Pangilinan's rankings in the Senate race, Dennis Coronacion of the University of Santo Tomas Department of Political Science told PhilSTAR L!fe that it makes sense as millennials and Gen Z are tech-savvy and have heavily relied on social media for political information in determining who to vote for.
"They don’t easily fall for simplistic political narratives and branding," Coronacion said. "It could be that when they looked for alternative candidates who are non-dynasts, not politically aligned with either the Marcos administration or Duterte camp, not showbiz celebrities, and qualified for the job, Bam and Kiko seem to have satisfied all these requirements."
The 2025 midterm polls took place on Monday, May 12. Check out PhilSTAR L!fe's coverage of this year's elections here.
