What to expect, issues likely to be covered at Marcos' fifth SONA

Foreign policy and national security

Edmund Tayao, political science professor and analyst, believes foreign relations is among the issues that Marcos will possibly cover, particularly with the ongoing conflict with China regarding the West Philippine Sea.

“Most likely, the President will share [with] the public how we have been maximizing and exhausting diplomatic options to settle conflicting claims in the WPS, including developments to the still ongoing negotiations on the Code of Conduct,” he said.

Recently, Philippine government vessels near Bajo de Masinloc were met with aggression from China Coast Guard ships during a mission to provide fuel subsidies and other assistance to Filipino fishermen in the area. According to the Philippine Coast Guard, Chinese vessels used water cannons against BRP Cape San Agustin and BRP Datu Paduhinog, marking the latest in a series of confrontations in the West Philippine Sea.

Apart from this, Tayao also hopes that Marcos will tackle the establishment and developments in Joint Maritime Law Enforcement in the contested waters as well as defense partnerships established with various countries all over the world.

Agriculture

Tayao also expects Marcos to give updates on various initiatives to improve agricultural production and lay out plans to further add value to tradeable goods and even services such as business process outsourcing.

In his last SONA, Marcos emphasized that his longtime campaign promise of P20 per kilo of rice had already come into fruition. According to the Department of Agriculture, the campaign has established 800 outlets nationwide and has reached 12 million beneficiaries.

However, the Federation of Free Farmers, the country’s oldest national farmers’ organization, recently gave the Marcos administration a grade of “barely passing” to “fail” when it comes to performance in agriculture and fisheries since his term began on June 30, 2022.

In a statement, they noted that despite successive increases in the DA's budget, the farm and fisheries sector has "remained basically stagnant—alternating between contraction [and] slight growth–and has hardly kept pace with the population growth rate of about 1%."

"While some 60% of DA’s budget funds the rice program, yield per hectare has barely improved from 4.11 tons in 2022 to a paltry 4.14 tons in 2025, and way below the modest target of 5 tons. Except for coconut, some fruits and fish, the Philippines has become increasingly reliant on importation to meet rising consumer demand," they said.

"For rice, the country imported around 30% of its staple food requirements since 2022, compared to below 10% ten years ago," they added.

Flood control scandal

Another issue that could take center stage in Marcos' address is the administration's ongoing crackdown on alleged irregularities in flood control projects.

"I would suppose the President will share to the people the developments in the many still ongoing investigations and cases already filed and to be filed," Tayao said.

Fellow political analyst Richard Heydarian shares this sentiment. Since Marcos' term is about to end, Heydarian believed that the chief executive will aim to assure people that he has "done just good enough to put the country on a better path."

"I think it's important for him to remind the people about the progress we have made on that front. Because of the flood control corruption scandal, all projects stopped, so are we moving towards completing some of the major infrastructure projects? And what has he done to make sure that we balance infrastructure development needs with transparency and anti-corruption initiatives?" he said.

"That will be a very difficult balancing act. But ultimately, this will be about rallying the nation behind him while admitting his shortcomings," he added.

Economy 

As the flood control scandal continues to raise questions about government spending and transparency, Heydarian said that this could also spill into Marcos' discussion of other economic issues.

"The other thing that the President will have to focus on is the economic agenda: how is he going to get the country out of its current doldrums, what are the ongoing efforts to diversify our energy base, and to bring in manufacturing investments," he said.

With this in mind, Heydarian expects Marcos to have a "lot of discussion" on the Pax Silica initiative, which the Philippines joined in April.

Pax Silica is a US-led initiative launched in December 2025 to build secure, resilient supply chains for AI technologies, particularly semiconductors and critical minerals. According to the US government website, its core objectives are to reduce reliance on coercive supply chains, strengthen global technology supply chains through partnerships and joint investments, and protect sensitive technologies while building trusted digital infrastructure.

As part of the initiative, the Philippine government has proposed a 1,620-hectare Pax Silica Hub in New Clark City, Capas, Tarlac, envisioned as an AI and advanced manufacturing hub. The project has drawn criticism and concern over its potential environmental threats.

However, Heydarian observed that Marcos has a tendency to make big announcements, but "really [comes] short in terms of policy."

"The President has to say that these are not just empty pledges, because in his first year alone, we saw hundreds of billions of pesos in pledges, but the question is whether they materialize," he said. "So he has to end that tendency."

Education and healthcare

The education sector was embroiled in much controversy in recent months, as reports involving students committing violence have made the headlines in the past month.

On June 22, a deadly shooting incident took place in San Jose National High School in Tacloban, where two minors, 15 and 14, went from classroom to classroom shooting at students and teachers. Three students were killed while several others were injured. 

The next day, a 17-year-old Grade 10 student stabbed a Grade 9 student in San Carlos City, Negros, outside school premises. Police reported the victim was injured in the lower right side of his abdomen and was immediately brought to the hospital for treatment. The suspect was arrested shortly after the attack. 

On June 25, Interior Secretary Jonvic Remulla said the Criminal Investigation and Detection Group of the Philippine National Police intercepted a planned shooting and stabbing attack against Tolosa National High School in Leyte. A potential shooting plot was also foiled in Cavite.

Then in Zamboanga City on July 2, a Grade 11 student stabbed and injured two classmates who supposedly bullied him. All three are reported to be in stable condition.

While the incidents appeared to be unrelated, the prevalence of such cases makes it likely that Marcos will devote part of his address to his administration's plans for student safety and well-being.

Healthcare is another important sector that Marcos may revisit, particularly after making several commitments in his previous SONA to expand access to medical services.

Last year, he vowed to strengthen the country's healthcare system by expanding PhilHealth benefits, building more specialty centers, and improving access to affordable medicines. Since then, PhilHealth has rolled out several initiatives, including increased benefit packages for select illnesses.

What not to expect

There are also particular issues that Marcos is unlikely to address. Tayao believes one of them is the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.

The trial is now on its ninth day. So far, the Senate impeachment court has heard witnesses and tackled allegations surrounding the vice president's supposed assassination plot against Marcos, First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and former House Speaker Martin Romualdez. It has also addressed the prosecution's bid to obtain Duterte's financial records through subpoenas.

Marcos and Duterte have had a tumultuous relationship since their UniTeam alliance fell apart, with tensions escalating after Duterte resigned as Education Secretary. The political rift between them has since widened.