Newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 unlikely to hit Earth in 2032
A newly discovered asteroid has a slim chance of hitting Earth in 2032.
Multiple outlets, including the Associated Press, reported that 2024 YR4 has a 2% chance to smack the planet seven years from now. Otherwise, it has a 98% chance of safely passing us.
Not much is known about 2024 YR4 yet, but the NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) said the asteroid is estimated to be 31 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide.
CNEOS Manager Paul Chodas said it's a “size range comparable to that of a large building," according to CNN.
It's not even close to "planet-killer" asteroid that hit the Earth 66 million years ago and caused the extinction of dinosaurs. It was estimated to be 10 kilometers in diameter, making it the last known large asteroid to hit the world.
Nevertheless, smaller asteroids can still cause devastation if they're on a collision course with Earth.
In the case of 2024 YR4, astronomers said there's a good chance that the 2% risk would likely drop to zero.
“No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising. This is the behavior our team expected,” Chodas told AP. “To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point.”
NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA)'s Webb Space Telescope will observe 2024 YR4 in March before disappearing from view.
If the asteroid disappears, scientists will have to wait until 2028 when it passes Earth again.
As its size and orbit remain uncertain, it's unclear where it might hit and what its possible impacts are.
If the asteroid is on the smaller end, ESA said any potential impacts would be similar to the Tunguska event in 1908, when thousands of square miles of a forest in Siberia in Russia were flattened.
But if it's close to 330 feet (100 meters), “the consequences would be significantly worse.”
Once the Webb Space Telescope pinpoints 2024 YR4's size, Chodas said NASA can predict “how serious an impact this asteroid could produce and how difficult a task it might be to deflect this asteroid.”
