PAGASA raises El Niño Watch, says it may begin in July
Feeling the heat lately? The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration said that El Niño may develop in the second half of the year.
The state weather bureau raised an El Niño Watch on Wednesday, March 25. This follows the end of La Niña on March 9 and a period of neutral conditions, which are expected to last until June or July.
PAGASA added that there's a 62% chance that El Niño conditions could begin as early as the July–August–September period this year, and an 83% chance that it would continue at least until the end of the year.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, marked by higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
It raises the chances of below-average rainfall, potentially leading dry spells and droughts in certain parts of the country. At the same time, some western areas may experience heavy rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon or habagat season.
PAGASA noted that it will continue to monitor the El Niño watch.
The weather bureau earlier announced that the dry season is expected to start this week after the end of the northeast monsoon, though some areas of Northern Luzon may still experience occasional northeasterly winds.
"With these developments, the day-to-day weather across the country will generally be fair and gradually become warmer, aside from the occurrence of isolated thunderstorms," PAGASA said.
In 2024, El Niño significantly affected the agriculture and poultry industries in the Philippines, reducing both the quantity and the size of production. During this period, more than 50 provinces experienced drought and dry spells.
