‘Very strong’ El Niño expected to persist through first half of 2027: PAGASA

The Philippines could face a “very strong” El Niño in the coming months, with the climate phenomenon expected to persist through the first half of 2027, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.

In a climate advisory issued Sept. 23, PAGASA said a strong El Niño is currently active in the Tropical Pacific and is expected to intensify into a very strong El Niño between September and December 2026.

PAGASA said the phenomenon generally brings warmer temperatures and below-normal rainfall across most parts of the Philippines.

According to the agency, the prolonged lack of rainfall could increase the risk of dry spells and drought, which may affect agriculture, water resources, energy production, public health, and the wider economy.

It also warned that the country could still experience periods of heavy rain despite the generally drier conditions.

"The ongoing Southwest Monsoon or Habagat, along with active tropical cyclones, may bring localized above-normal rainfall, particularly over the western section of the Philippines," PAGASA said.

DOST Secretary Renato U. Solidum Jr. urged local government units and climate-sensitive sectors to prepare ahead of time, emphasizing early action in agriculture, infrastructure, and essential services.

“Climate information must be utilized before a crisis strikes,” Solidum stressed.

Echoing this call, PAGASA Administrator Dr. Nathaniel V. Servando assured the public that the agency will closely monitor the phenomenon and issue regular updates, noting that “timely advisories enable both authorities and citizens to take effective preparedness and response measures.”