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DOH explains why projected COVID-19 spike in NCR by end of September will be ‘exponential’

By Lora Mae U. Reyes Published Sep 03, 2021 8:49 pm

The Department of Health (DOH) clarified on Friday, Sept. 3, that the expected increase of COVID-19 cases by the end of September is going to be exponential and the projection will be used for “planning purposes” to handle the pandemic.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said, “Kaya po natin pinauulit sa inyo mula umpisa–noong nakadetect tayo ng Delta variant—that we will expect a rise in number of cases, and it’s going to be exponential.

“Nakita natin na pataas nang pataas pa rin ang projection natin dahil that’s the characteristic of the Delta variant,” she said.

Vergeire also mentioned the three factors or assumptions for the projection of COVID-19 cases: vaccine coverage, duration between detection and isolation, and adherence and compliance to minimum public health standards.

“Now when it comes to these assumptions, if we can improve these, we (won’t) have this type of numbers sa period na sinasabi natin. So katulad ngayon sa NCR, bagamat pinrojectan tayo na by the end of August meron tayong about 83,000 na active cases pero ang NCR ay nasa almost 50,000 cases siya. Ibig sabihin, di niya narating,” Usec. Vergeire said.

She explained that local government units were able to improve these factors, along with the implementation of granular lockdowns in some cities, communities, and streets.

Usec. Vergeire also clarified that they projected 17,000-43,000 daily COVID-19 cases and are expecting at least 150,000 total cases.

“Linggo-linggo, binabago po namin yan based sa pagmove nitong assumptions na ‘to and paglaki ng numbers. Yun po yung gusto namin ipaliwanag dito sa projections na ito para iisa lang po ang pagkakaintindi nating lahat,” she said.

According to the Philippine News Agency (PNA), the DOH’s earlier projection of 30,000 daily COVID-19 cases may still change until the end of September as they’re “not cast in stone.”

Banner and thumbnail photos from Miguel de Guzman/Philippine STAR