Researchers from the Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality at the University of Copenhagen tested the assumption that character traits such as risk tolerance and impatience are more prevalent among criminals.
The study, titled Preferences predict who commits crime among young men, was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. There is a broad belief that some people have stronger social and financial incentives to commit crimes than others do. Yet, people who face the same incentives can also make different choices because they have different preferences. This means that they weighed the costs and benefits of committing a criminal action differently.
In general, however, there is a lack of knowledge about the role of people's preferences in relation to the risk of ending up committing a crime.
"In addition to looking at the importance of cognitive skills and socio-economic background, we have also examined a number of personal preferences in relation to criminal behavior. And we can clearly see that certain preferences play a key role," said Professor Claus Thustrup Kreiner.
According to the researchers, willingness to take risks turned out to be a key characteristic of many criminals.
"The propensity to commit crime is twice as high for the most risk-tolerant individuals compared to the least risk-tolerant," emphasized Kreiner.
The importance of the individual's willingness to take risks in predicting criminal behavior corresponds to half of the importance of cognitive abilities, which is the strongest predictor of the propensity to commit a crime.
"If we look at different types of crime, willingness to take risks is particularly relevant when it comes to predicting property offenses, such as theft. If we are talking about violent, drug, or sexual offenses, problems with self-control are common among the individuals," explained Kreiner.
The study included data from economic experiments, where more than 7,000 young Danish men were invited to participate on an online platform.
The participants received an average payoff of approximately DKK 250 for participating, but the amount depended, among other things, on their patience in the experiment and willingness to take risks with the possibility of a major benefit. The study was in line with other economic studies, which have examined the importance of preferences for differences in people's economic outcomes. Data from the experiments was anonymized and linked to administrative data, which, in addition to describing the socioeconomic conditions of the participants, also included information about the crime.
"We have chosen to focus on crime among young men aged 15-20 because it is a group where a lot of crime is committed compared with other men and women in general," explained Kreiner.
The combination of experimental and administrative data also gave Kreiner and the other researchers a unique set of control variables.
"We have gathered information such as school performance, residential area, immigration status, family size, birth order, parental socioeconomic status, criminal activity of parents, and stress factors such as parental divorce or unemployment," he said.
One of the main functions of the criminal justice system is to deter people from committing crimes. The new research results implied that exactly the people who are most likely to commit crimes are also those who respond least to increased enforcement and stricter sentences. The risk of future penalties has a much smaller preventive impact on a person who is impatient and willing to take risks.
"Our study may be able to help explain why there is limited empirical evidence that increasing punishment works to reduce crime," said Kreiner.
The inadequate effect of punishment highlights the importance of work on crime prevention. Here, Kreiner also believes that their results are relevant.
He elaborated, "Our study clearly shows that preferences such as risk tolerance, impatience, and altruism predict the propensity to commit crime. Other research suggests that it is possible to influence these behavioral parameters in children and young people, which can be very important in relation to the development of criminal behavior." (ANI)