[OPINION] SONA 2026: Countdown for curtain call begins
By now, President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. must have been feeling it: His days in Malacañang, the country’s seat of power, are now headed for a final countdown.
His 2026 State of the Nation Address—his second-to-last, so neat and delivered nonchalantly, and “populist” in the words of political science professor Julio Teehankee—was meant to address that imminent exit, to win some brownie points, and, make no mistake, that let no man feel less of him when the time comes.
It would have been an effective speech, except that it was, to say the least, “reactive”—the President reacting to all the controversies surrounding and circumscribing his administration, all the controversies dragging down his administration.
Alas and alack, he seems to have lost, or is beginning to lose, that presidential in-charge attitude, his presidential standing, his presidential powers to direct the affairs of the state, that everything was under his feet.
All these populist stances were meant to address his sagging popularity and trust rating.
He opened his speech, for shock and awe, with the impending filing of plunder and graft charges, “patong patong,” by the Office of the Ombudsman against his cousin, former Speaker Martin Romualdez, a long-awaited report for the flood-control budget anomalies.
Losing one's face
He lost face two weeks later after heavy rains flooded Metro Manila and key areas in the countryside. He tried to win back in the SONA 2025 for censuring legislators: “Mahiya naman kayo!”
“Meron bang nahiya?” a TV station host asked about the President’s 2025 speech.
If he were the true whistleblower that he was, why didn’t Marcos refute Romualdez’s claim that he wasn’t alone, if ever, in that flood-control scandal, and that the bucks stop at Marcos’ office?
Marcos looked the other way when his former Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin, a relative, and several others close to him, personally and professionally, were linked to the scandal. He didn’t mind when House members stopped contractors from linking 17 congressmen to the scandal, or when the Senate Blue Ribbon refused to hear the testimonies of new witnesses.
If anything, the President’s whistle-blowing was meant as a damage control measure, according to his critics.
“Masakit sa akin ito,” the President said of the prospects of seeing his cousin going to jail. “Pero hindi ako pangulo ng aking pamilya. Ang tungkulin ko ay sa inyo.”
Marcos’ statement came too little, too late. He didn’t actually say that he would want to see Romualdez in jail, to at least complete the show. Nor would he be willing to seize Romualdez’s list of reported pieces of property. The public should watch how Romualdez would react to the President’s speech in the next few weeks.
Marcos wanted to be remembered as the man who exposed the flood-control corruption, but he avoided addressing the fact that he approved and signed the national budget from its preparation in the National Expenditures Program to the General Appropriations Act and that, for all its loopholes, he should have taken command responsibility, both in the budget disbursement and implementation, and release of billions earmarked for the projects.
Declining popularity
Over the last few months, the President’s trust ratings have been declining. In the latest Pulse Asia Survey, Marcos’ approval and trust ratings declined, with half of the Filipinos now disapproving of Marcos' performance, while only 29% approve and 21% remain undecided.
The President has two more years, but it would probably be too difficult to reverse the trajectory of his popularity rating.
Only the President can turn the tide to make his term acceptable and memorable, especially to the 31 million who voted for him. Malacañang hoped that the public seeing Romualdez in jail could reverse the tide. That remains to be seen.
The SONA could have provided him the platform, indeed, but he tiptoed on many other things, other issues that were too hot to handle that would only hurt his popularity.
Among these was the continuing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte.
He talked about his administration’s commitment to fight corruption, but he did not talk about the Duterte impeachment, to the consternation of his supporters in Congress, many of whom have faced humiliation during the trial.
Outside the impeachment court, nobody dares to try to humiliate a congressman, to be sure.
House members have been trying to pin down Duterte to get rid of her in the May 2028 elections on various alleged offenses, ranging from unlawful use of government funds, unexplained wealth, and grave threats against Marcos, his wife, and the former Speaker.
Neither did the President talk about the anti-dynasty bill, which he certified as urgent and sponsored by his son, Ilocos Norte Rep. Sandro Marcos. Sandro's bill, according to critics, was a pro-dynasty bill.
Whatever, the country would host two elections this year: the barangay elections in November and the BARMM elections in September.
It would be too hot and too messy to get in the way of local politics if one is conscious of one’s popularity.
Instead, the President talked about incentives, packages for various sectors, mostly for students, teachers, OFWs, farmers and the transport sectors, small-scale entrepreneurs, giving them tax breaks, more financial assistance, more health packages to win the general public.
But can he deliver?
Within the next few weeks, the President’s economic managers as well as critics would do the math if the Marcos administration can still keep up the promises.
The packages were so many such that when businessman Sergio Ortiz-Luis, president of the Employers Confederation of the Philippines, was asked of his reaction to the President’s speech, he replied: “Can we afford it all?”
To cap his speech, he made rousing lines on the raging controversial issues surrounding the West Philippine Sea. He called on the Filipino people to unite to defend Philippine sovereignty.
“Sa mga manlulupig, hindi tayo pasisiil,” Marcos said. “We do this because we love our country; we love our people.”
It was so great for the President to seize the moment and rally public support for its struggle with China on the disputed territory.
But the WPS is not one issue that divides the country between his administration and his critics, his economic output and the economic indicators that dismayed the Filipino people in the surveys.
As of last count, the core economic indicators for the Marcos administration revealed a mix of sharp slowdowns and persistent global pressures: GDP Q1 is placed at 2.8%; inflation and living costs, 6.4%.
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported 48.89 million employed Filipinos, 2.41 million unemployed, and 7.41 million underemployed as of April.
Net inflows of foreign direct investments fell sharply to $250 million, a near 10-year low driven by dampened investor sentiment and global geopolitical risks.
The Philippine peso breached fresh historic lows last week, trading at P61.847 per US dollar.
Goodbye, Malacanang
Sooner or later, the President and his family would have to say goodbye once again to the once and future home of the Marcoses. But it is less tragic that Marcos Jr., elected to the presidency by a resounding 31 million votes, would exit the way his family did 36 years ago “against their will” and for all the criticisms against his family before, during, and after the EDSA Revolution.
In contrast, former president Rodrigo Duterte ended his term with high trust and satisfaction ratings, whereas former president Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III finished his term with moderate ratings after experiencing earlier drops.
When Marcos won in the May 2022 presidential elections, there was not a single electoral protest to question it. The lawyer of his nearest rival, Leni Robredo, conceded defeat even before he was officially proclaimed.
That the Marcoses returned to power without blood was probably a cause of celebration, a good takeoff to revise the history of the Marcoses tangled in allegations of ill-gotten wealth and human rights violations. Or to make amends.
By tradition, the President’s ultimate address, in Marcos' case in 2027, would be his final goodbye, as all outgoing chief executives, by then, shall have become a lame duck.
But in June 2028, if the trend would continue, Marcos would leave without an overzealous lieutenant, or a popular wannabe who can carry out whatever reforms he had initiated. Or to protect the Marcoses upon departure.
Still, there would be time for reckoning.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions of PhilSTAR L!fe, its parent company and affiliates, or its staff.