Here’s why the 2024 US presidential election matters to the Philippines—and the rest of the world
Should you care about the 2024 United States presidential polls?
Election Day kicked off in the US on Tuesday, Nov. 5, with Democrat and current vice president Kamala Harris in a head-to-head battle against Republican and former president Donald Trump for the highest position in their country. Each of them needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the race.
But what does it have to do with the Philippines and the rest of the world?
Political analysts Jean Franco and Dennis Coronacion told PhilSTAR L!fe that with the US being one of the most powerful countries, there’s no way that the results of the ongoing polls wouldn’t prove decisive beyond their nation.
"Whatever the US does, affects other countries including us kasi we have ties with them—economic ties, political ties, social ties," Coronacion, who serves as the chair of UST's Department of Political Science, said. "As for the other countries, siguro kapag sobrang isolated ka lang, dun mo hindi mararamdaman 'yung impact ng paggalaw ng US o kaya kung ano man 'yung policies ng US under the new president."
"Whoever wins in the US will have major global repercussions,” added Franco, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science in UP Diliman.
Immigration
Data from the US Census Bureau showed that about 4.1 million Filipino Americans lived in the US as of 2022, with Pinoys accounting for 17% of its total Asian American population.
“Marami tayong overseas Filipino workers doon o mga immigrants because it’s always been a dream for them to migrate to the US and permanently settle there,” Coronacion said. “Dahil diyan, kung ano man ‘yung magiging immigration policy ng bagong US president, it could affect ‘yung may mga pending na application for US citizenship.”
Coronacion's friend, for instance, saw a pause in the approval of their US citizenship when Trump first served as its chief executive from 2017 to 2021. “Nung Biden presidency na, doon pa lang ulit umandar ‘yung processing ng kanilang papers,” he shared, expressing worry that they could encounter another delay if Trump emerges victorious in the race.
According to TIME Magazine, Trump vowed to bring back the strict immigration measures he enacted during his first term should he succeed in his presidential bid this year. He’s planning to conduct mass deportations of millions of individuals who are residing there without legal immigration status.
"If the next president would be friendly to a lot of immigrants in the US, then I think it could affect a lot of Filipinos in a good way. Magbebenefit sila kapag maluwag at accommodating ang US government,” added Coronacion.
The political expert thinks Filipinos and other cultural minorities are going to benefit more from a Harris win in this area. This is because the politician is known to symphathize with them as she's black and Asian American, having been born to Indian and Jamaican parents who immigrated to the US for their studies, per BBC.
West Philippine Sea
The choice of Americans could also impact our fight for the West Philippine Sea, which is important in the preservation of our national identity, natural resources, food security, and the livelihoods of Filipino fishermen.
Outgoing US president Joe Biden has repeatedly expressed his support for us in our territorial dispute against China. Aside from affirming the US’ commitment to staying on our side when he met with Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos in May 2023, he promised anew to defend us from “any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels, or armed forces” in the WPS during a bilateral meeting with Marcos and Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida in April 2024.
"I expect to see the same amount of support in this matter under the Harris administration. She was the VP and I’m pretty sure her advisors are also telling her not to totally copy but to sort of take a leaf from what Biden has done during his administration with regards to the West Philippine Sea,” Franco told L!fe. “We’re not so sure as to how Trump will position his administration vis-a-vis the WPS issue given that he has been very much against America interfering in other parts of the world.”
“Since we are not capable of confronting China in terms of military aspect, we definitely need the support of countries like the US as well as Australia, South Korea, and Japan. Ito 'yung mga bansa lately na nagiging very supportive sa ating cause sa WPS,” Coronacion explained.
Economy
The economy of the Philippines and other parts of the globe could also be affected by the outcome of the 2024 polls in America.
“For instance, the US is a major trading partner of the country so it's always good for us if the US has good economy. If it’s robust, then trading would be okay for the Philippines,” said Franco.
Coronacion, however, warned that a reelected Trump "could have the same kind of economic policy: US first.”
“We have known Trump as a president who sees to it that the American interest takes primacy over the interest of other countries,” he explained, pointing out how he always put the US first in trading blocs and international trade agreements. “Any trading bloc that the US is a member of na hindi favorable sa US, there’s a possibility that a Trump presidency would pull out of this.”
The political scientist highlighted how the Republican approached things like a businessman during his first term. “If it would be another Trump presidency, baka hindi ganun kasupportive sa atin ang US kasi tingin ni Trump, gastos lang kapag maraming US involvement,” he continued, adding that other countries, including the PH, could gain more in this department if Harris wins—assuming that she’s going to build on Biden's economic policy.
Beyond these, Coronacion said the results of the 2024 presidential race could likewise impact stability in various regions of the globe. “Kung 'yung bagong presidente cares so much for the welfare of the other countries, mararamdaman mo that the US can provide regional stability, peace, and security,” he told L!fe.
The possible benefits that the Philippines and the rest of the world could get depending on who will be named next US president in a few days are not just out of platonic love, after all. "Syempre, mayroon din interest—self-interest—ang US, which is to preserve its dominance in international relations. Kaya din niya ginagawa 'yun kasi nakikinabang din naman siya, including the protection of its own citizens,” Coronacion concluded.